Digging a Green Path to Peace: Resource Conflicts in a Decarbonizing World

@phdthesis{digging-a-green-path-to-peace,
   title = {Digging a Green Path to Peace: Resource Conflicts in a Decarbonizing World},
   author = {Weissberg, Yaron},
   school = {ETH Zurich},
   type = {{PhD} dissertation},
   doi = {10.3929/ethz-b-000712911},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000712911},
   year = {2024},
   abstract = {Addressing climate change necessitates a fundamental transformation in our approach to natural resource management. This Energy Resource Transition (ERT) comprises three core elements: halting new investments in oil and gas, reducing current demand for these fossil fuels, and replacing them with the Green Technology Minerals (GTMs) required for various clean energy technologies. This dissertation examines the potential risks and opportunities associated with these changes, particularly their implications for domestic conflict. Based on existing research linking oil and gas to political violence, one can argue that a reduced reliance on these resources could reduce conflict. As oil-rich regions lose their strategic significance, they may no longer be prime targets for rebel groups, and the financial incentives for secessionist conflicts could diminish. Additionally, GTMs, due to their lower market value, recyclability, and reduced susceptibility to looting, appear less likely to provoke the same level of violence associated with fossil fuels or conflict minerals. However, the clean energy transition is not without challenges. Communities near new GTM mining sites face grievances related to land displacement, environmental degradation, and socioeconomic disruption, all of
which could spark conflict. Moreover, oil-dependent states, whose political stability
has been underpinned by fossil fuel revenues, may experience heightened instability as
these revenues decline. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of these emerging risks, offering a balanced assessment of both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
Utilizing a rigorous empirical framework that incorporates novel spatial and historical
data, the research evaluates the conflict risks inherent in this transition. By examining
comparable dynamics from the recent past, I argue that while the ERT offers opportunities to reduce violence in certain regions, it also introduces new vulnerabilities that
require careful management. The findings suggest that power-sharing arrangements
and inclusive governance are critical in mitigating the conflict risks associated with
new extraction projects. For petrostates, a decline in oil wealth may lead to new forms
of violence, yet regions previously plagued by resource-related conflicts could experience a decrease in violence. The thesis concludes by highlighting the dual nature of
the ERT \textendash presenting both risks and opportunities \textendash and underscores the crucial role of
strategic policymaking. With the right interventions, the energy transition could not
only mitigate the risks of climate change but also deliver what I term a \textquotedblleft green peace
dividend.\textquotedblright  Achieving this requires a deeper understanding of the conflict mechanisms at play, which this thesis aims to provide.}
}