The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics: Liberal Backsliding and Armed Conflict

@article{the-return-of-nationalist-geopolitics,
   author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Galano Toro, Paola and Girardin, Luc and Juon, Andreas},
   title = {The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics: Liberal Backsliding and Armed Conflict},
   journal = { International Security},
   year = {2026},
   abstract = { The post\textendashCold War decline in violent conflict has been reversed, giving way to rising instability both within and between states. While many attribute this shift to intensified great-power competition, we argue that \textit{nationalist} geopolitics, manifested through conflict driven by grievances reflecting the political exclusion of ethnic groups and their kin, offers a more accurate explanation. We explain how endogenous and exogenous factors weakened the liberal international order in favor of ethnic nationalism in the early 21st century. This erosion of broader liberal norms, particularly what we call liberal backsliding started undermining inclusive policies that ultimately destabilized post\textendashCold War peace. Using newly updated global data on ethnic power relations (1946\textendash2023), we document a reversal of inclusionary trends that began in the early 2010s.  These findings challenge power-centric explanations of global instability and highlight how liberal institutional erosion, particularly in the domain of ethnic inclusion, creates fertile ground for identity-based violence. The return of nationalist geopolitics is thus rooted not only in shifting power relations but also in the retreat of institutional safeguards.},
   note = {Forthcoming; conditionally accepted}
}