Understanding ethno-nationalist conflict: From factors to actors
Lars-Erik Cederman (ETH Zürich), Andreas Wimmer (UCLA) and Brian Min (UCLA)
Abstract: The quantitative literature on civil wars has debated whether ethnic diversity increases the likelihood of “ethnic conflict”. In contrast, we analyze such conflict as the result of competing ethno-nationalist claims to state power. Rather than estimating the impact of aggregate factors such as ethnic diversity indices, we identify key actors representing different ethnic groups, and analyze how their motivations and mobilizational capacity influence the propensity for armed conflict. In order to support this disaggregated approach, the authors assembled a new dataset on Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) that covers all politically relevant ethnic groups and their access to power around the world from 1946 through 2005. Based on this data, we show that conflict with the government is more likely to erupt (1) the more excluded from state power representatives of an ethnic group are, (2) the higher their mobilizational capacity, and (3) the more they have experienced previous conflict.