Predicting Armed Conflict: Time to Adjust Our Expectations?

Science 355(6324): 474–76.

This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly comapared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial recent progress in this field.

Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Nils B. Weidmann. 2017. “Predicting Armed Conflict: Time to Adjust Our Expectations?” Science 355(6324): 474–76.

@article{predicting-armed-conflict,
   title = {Predicting Armed Conflict: Time to Adjust Our Expectations?},
   author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Weidmann, Nils B.},
   year = {2017},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {355},
   number = {6324},
   pages = {474--476},
   abstract = {This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly comapared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial recent progress in this field.}
}