The Future Is History: Restorative Nationalism and Conflict in Post-Napoleonic Europe

International Organization: 1–34.

As illustrated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the recent revival of nationalism has triggered a threatening return of revisionist conflict. Yet the literature on nationalism offers little guidance to contemporary geopolitics because it focuses more on debunking flawed historical narratives rather than studying their consequences. Taking nationalist narratives seriously, we study how past “golden ages”affect territorial claims and conflict in post‐Napoleonic Europe. We expect nationalists to be more likely to mobilize and initiate conflict if they can contrast the status quo to a historical polity with supposedly greater national unity and/or independence. Using data on European state borders going back to 1100, combined with spatial data covering ethnic settlement areas during the past two centuries, we find that the availability of plausible golden ages increases the risk of both domestic and interstate conflict. These findings suggest that specific historical legacies make some modern nationalisms more consequential than others

URL: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818324000122

DOI: 10.1017/S0020818324000122

Cederman, Lars-Erik, Yannick Pengl, Luc Girardin, and Carl Müller-Crepon. 2024. “The Future Is History: Restorative Nationalism and Conflict in Post-Napoleonic Europe.” International Organization: 1–34.

@article{the-future-is-history,
   abstract = {As illustrated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the recent revival of nationalism has triggered a threatening return of revisionist conflict. Yet the literature on nationalism offers little guidance to contemporary geopolitics because it focuses more on debunking flawed historical narratives rather than studying their consequences. Taking nationalist narratives seriously, we study how past \textquotedblleft golden ages\textquotedblright  affect territorial claims and conflict in post-Napoleonic Europe. We expect nationalists to be more likely to mobilize and initiate conflict if they can contrast the status quo to a historical polity with supposedly greater national unity and/or independence. Using data on European state borders going back to 1100, combined with spatial data covering ethnic settlement areas during the past two centuries, we find that the availability of plausible golden ages increases the risk of both domestic and interstate conflict. These findings suggest that specific historical legacies make some modern nationalisms more consequential than others},
   author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Pengl, Yannick and Girardin, Luc and M\"uller-Crepon, Carl},
   journal = {International Organization},
   title = {{The Future Is History: Restorative Nationalism and Conflict in Post-Napoleonic Europe}},
   pages = {1\textendash34},
   doi = {10.1017/S0020818324000122},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818324000122},
   eprint = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818324000122},
   year = {2024},
   status = {nastac-pub}
}