Emergent Polarity: Analyzing State-Formation and Power Politics

International Studies Quarterly 38(4): 501–33.

Neorealism focuses solely on how states maintain balance of power equilibria, neglecting the dynamic process by which these states consolidated their power. The present study evaluates neorealist propositions by bringing them to bear on both the emergence and the consolidation of the state system, asking not only why certain polarity structures maintain themselves but also why they emerge in the first place. To analyze this issue, I present a computer model that (1) provides an explicit spatial representation of the international system; (2) involves a large number of actors; (3) endogenizes the outer boundaries of these actors as well as the polarity structure of both the regional and global structure; and (4) endows these agents with a bounded and historically contingent decision scope. The simulation findings cast the neorealist arguments in a new, dynamic light. As expected by structural realists, unit‐level factors play a subordinate role, but only under conditions of violent and persistent interstate competition. Contrary to what is usually believed, defensive technology and alliances are likely to lead to unipolarity rather than contribute to stability. The collapse of the regional balance in Renaissance Italy illustrates how the difference between regional and global alignments may undermine the systemic balance. Finally, I argue that these theoretical qualifications should discourage exaggerated faith in strategic laissez‐faire in contemporary Eastern Europe.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2600863

DOI: 10.2307/2600863

Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1994. “Emergent Polarity: Analyzing State-Formation and Power Politics.” International Studies Quarterly 38(4): 501–33.

@article{emergent-polarity,
   title = {Emergent Polarity: Analyzing State-Formation and Power Politics},
   author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik},
   journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
   volume = {38},
   number = {4},
   pages = {501--533},
   year = {1994},
   abstract = {Neorealism focuses solely on how states maintain balance of power equilibria, neglecting the dynamic process by which these states consolidated their power. The present study evaluates neorealist propositions by bringing them to bear on both the emergence and the consolidation of the state system, asking not only why certain polarity structures maintain themselves but also why they emerge in the first place. To analyze this issue, I present a computer model that (1) provides an explicit spatial representation of the international system; (2) involves a large number of actors; (3) endogenizes the outer boundaries of these actors as well as the polarity structure of both the regional and global structure; and (4) endows these agents with a bounded and historically contingent decision scope. The simulation findings cast the neorealist arguments in a new, dynamic light. As expected by structural realists, unit-level factors play a subordinate role, but only under conditions of violent and persistent interstate competition. Contrary to what is usually believed, defensive technology and alliances are likely to lead to unipolarity rather than contribute to stability. The collapse of the regional balance in Renaissance Italy illustrates how the difference between regional and global alignments may undermine the systemic balance. Finally, I argue that these theoretical qualifications should discourage exaggerated faith in strategic laissez-faire in contemporary Eastern Europe.},
   doi = {10.2307/2600863},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2600863},
   status = {personal}
}